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Dashboard sync — 2026-05-10

Hand-authored·3 min read·4 sections·Last edited May 13 by initial import·View history
TL;DR

**Trigger**: file event — `toby/strategy/bets.md` created (Rolling Bets Queue, ICE-scored, MoSCoW-tagged, with falsifying signals).

Action taken: updated toby/00-state-of-the-project.md to delegate strategic identity to toby/strategy/compass.md and the live bet ledger to toby/strategy/bets.md. No code touched.

What changed in the dashboard

  1. last_updated: 2026-05-09 → 2026-05-10.
  2. New "Strategic anchor" section (top of doc) that points at compass.md as the canonical product identity, axioms, anchors, brand promise, anti-promise. Calls out the two structural shifts in compass:
    • Axis sharpened "calm" → "calm-by-ambient-surfacing — value in the gap between intent and next action" (because "calm" became a category claim).
    • Reliability (save/restore) promoted to Anchor 1 because of the live blank-page regression.
  3. "Immediate next steps" reordered by ICE-ranked Musts from bets.md (was previously ordered by recency-of-source):
    • pricing-reality-reconcile (ICE 600) — was #2, now #1 (1h audit, highest leverage, blocks gating).
    • reliability-blank-page-fix (ICE 576) — was #1, now #2.
    • cws-narrative-repair (ICE 392) — was #6, now #3.
    • phase-2-welcome-ab (ICE 192) — was #3/4/5 (as Phase 2 slices), now consolidated under the bet with operational slices nested beneath.
    • Atlassian/Dia decision retained (founder-level, one-way door).
    • Removed standalone Phase 2 "register endpoint shape" item — now a sub-slice of the phase-2-welcome-ab bet.
    • Removed "Chrome 133 vs. Toby" page from Musts — bets.md classifies it as Should-tier (ICE 240).
    • Appended a Should/Could tail summary citing the proposed bets (role-based-paywall-gating, public-collection-pride-loop, lapsed-pro-reactivation-campaign, chrome-133-vs-toby-comparison-page, seo-content-cadence-2-weeks, x-relaunch-soft).
  4. "Key decisions to date" — three new entries reflecting changes locked in by compass + bets:
    • Strategic axis sharpened: "calm" → "calm-by-ambient-surfacing".
    • Reliability promoted to Anchor 1.
    • Killed bets explicitly enumerated (deeper-discount-retention 50%, team-plan-as-primary-monetization, paid-acquisition-channel, aggressive-pricing-on-legacy-cohort).
    • "270K untracked WAU" → explicitly marked killed as a strategic axis (was just "resolved").
    • "AI feature relaunch deferred Q3 → Q4" updated to reference the explicit kill of pre-announcement.
  5. "Open questions / blockers" — two new items:
    • Owners undefined for 3 of 4 in-flight Musts (blank-page-fix, cws-narrative-repair, pricing-reality).
    • X account credential gate blocks x-relaunch-soft.
  6. "Doc index" — fixed (was badly stale, listed only the dashboard). Now lists all 8 docs under toby/:
    • 00-state-of-the-project, 01-personas, strategy/compass, strategy/bets, x-strategy, x-content-pipeline, x-engagement-targets, blog-pipeline, blog-why-you-have-so-many-tabs-open.
  7. "Phase / Milestone progress" — cross-references bets.md phase-2-welcome-ab and the four validated graduations (session-start-heartbeat, retention-discount-all-cancellation-reasons, monorepo-flatten-turborepo, cws-review-monitor-with-ai-drafts).

What did not change

  • Codebase state: still on main, last commit b9bea18c (2026-04-29). Same uncommitted CLAUDE.md + untracked docs/ai-onboarding-ideas-analysis.md, product/ideas/, research-docs/.
  • Recent shipments list: no new commits in the last 24h. Same 12-item batch.
  • TL;DR's headline facts (Phase 1 shipped 2026-04-14, Phase 2 has no commits visible).

Operator decisions surfaced (still pending)

  1. Assign owners for reliability-blank-page-fix, cws-narrative-repair, pricing-reality-reconcile (3 of 4 in-flight Musts have no owner).
  2. Confirm whether Phase 2 work is on an unpushed branch or genuinely deferred (19 days past the target start).
  3. Decide on the Atlassian/Dia 60-min discovery meeting (one-way door, window narrowing).
  4. Verify @TobyForTabs X credentials so the x-relaunch-soft proposed bet can move forward.
  5. Whether the uncommitted CLAUDE.md + untracked docs/ai-onboarding-ideas-analysis.md, product/ideas/, research-docs/ should be committed before Phase 2 begins.

Files touched this run

  • toby/00-state-of-the-project.md (updated via aios MCP).
  • content/artifacts/toby-pm/af814294-3817-4cf9-b81b-69946b803977/dashboard-sync-2026-05-10.md (this audit log).