Diagnose 4-week sustained signup decline (-60.8% YoY)
- Assignees
- Unassigned
- Created
- 5/11/2026, 10:34:52 PM
- Source
content/artifacts/toby-state-of-business---nightly-report/b9bfe5ec-9a61-4206-89bf-3257224a21dc/state-of-business-2026-05-18.html
Signups have been below 800/wk for 4 consecutive weeks (Apr 20: 769, Apr 27: 709, May 4: 725, May 11: 720). YoY same window: 720 vs 1,836 = -60.8%. Not seasonality at this depth/duration. Recurring CWS complaints in April mentioned 'blank extension page' and 'frustrating onboarding'. Hypothesis: a SW (service worker) boot regression broke the install→first-open path. Action: bisect between mid-2025 and current release, focusing on extension SW lifecycle / first-paint path. Source: state-of-business-2026-05-18.html.
Resolution (2026-05-12 backlog triage): Cancelled — duplicate of toby/incidents/2026-05-11-blank-extension-page.md (status closed, verdict validated). The SW-boot-regression hypothesis carried in this ticket was REFUTED by the warroom on 2026-05-11 (backend prod-api SHA stable since 2026-02-02, 0 5xx, network-free hang path). Root cause is an unbounded chrome.storage.local.get callback in apps/extension/app/state/accessors/user.tsx:45-50, made user-visible by commit d68726b29. Real-cause tracking lives in the incident doc + bet reliability-blank-page-fix (ICE 576, O1 KR1, due 2026-05-24).