Pre-stage Feb-27 mega-cliff response (offer ladder + instrumentation)
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- Unassigned
- Created
- 5/11/2026, 10:34:52 PM
- Source
content/artifacts/toby-state-of-business---nightly-report/b9bfe5ec-9a61-4206-89bf-3257224a21dc/state-of-business-2026-05-18.html
Feb 2027 sees 2,354 legacy ThankYou subs / 2,700 seats / $12,447.50 MRR renew in a single month — 31% of total MRR and 26% of paid subs. Cohort is mostly at legacy $4.50/seat/yr pricing and faces a re-price decision. Net Oct-26/Jan-27/Feb-27 = $22.6K MRR / 55% of total reaches a renewal decision. We are now ~8.5 months from the wave. Need: (1) offer-ladder UX design for legacy→new pricing; (2) instrumented funnel; (3) A/B'd email cadence. Build target: Q3 2026 (Jul-Sep) so it's in production by Oct-26 first cliff. WoW: cohort already leaking — 17 subs / $81 MRR pre-cancelled this week. Source: state-of-business-2026-05-18.html.
Resolution (2026-05-12 backlog triage): Cancelled — promoted to strategic bet cliff-renewal-offer-ladder in toby/strategy/bets.md (proposed, ICE 216). Execution tickets will fan out from the bet once it's accepted; a Q3-2026 build target with a $12.4K/mo MRR cliff is bet-shaped, not ticket-shaped.