# Playbook ingestion — 2026-05-10

**Trigger**: file watch on `toby/strategy/` — `toby/strategy/playbook.md` created.
**Source doc**: `toby/strategy/playbook.md` — *Toby — Q2 2026 Growth Playbook* (last_updated 2026-05-10).
**Author**: presumed `toby-strategist` (sibling agent that owns the `toby/strategy/` sub-folder).
**Action taken**: full ingestion + dashboard rewrite at `toby/00-state-of-the-project.md`.

## What the playbook adds (that didn't exist before in the wiki)

1. **A growth thesis.** "The under-pulled lever this quarter is reliability + activation — not acquisition." Backed by the observation that CWS conversion on residual high-intent traffic is ~30% (strong) — so the loss curve is value-realization, not top-of-funnel.
2. **An explicit current-loop diagnosis.**
   - Primary, declining: CWS organic search (collapsed Oct 8 2025, -83%, never recovered).
   - Secondary, real but ungovernable: word-of-mouth (31% of surveyed users; no in-product mechanic to close the loop).
   - Latent, dormant: the curator content loop (1,848 Free-Tier Archivists; 14,306 active card-share links; 18.6% public-share rate). **Only the third is meaningfully under-pulled this quarter.**
3. **Q2 2026 OKRs** — 3 objectives, 9 KRs, all measurable, all with deadlines inside the 7 remaining weeks of Q2.
4. **Anti-bets** — 6 explicit "we will NOT do this and here's why" calls. The most consequential ones:
   - No pre-announce of AI organize features.
   - No paid acquisition while CWS rank is unrecovered.
   - No Firefox/Safari port this quarter (forces "Phase 2 + reliability OR platform port"; we pick the first).
   - Atlassian/Dia 60-min partnership discovery explicitly deferred past Q2.
5. **Red-team pass** — three perspectives (sceptical investor / frustrated user / competitor PM) with named residuals that became new open questions for the dashboard.
6. **A falsification clause for the thesis itself** — if Phase 2 fails AND blank-page hotfix lands AND CWS conversion still falls, the diagnosis is wrong and the bottleneck is structurally upstream.

## What the playbook re-confirms (from compass + bets + dashboard)

- Top-5 priority bets are a strict subset of `toby/strategy/bets.md` in-flight + proposed.
- The 2026-05-26 Phase 2 decision review (already on the dashboard) is preserved with the original kill criterion.
- The reliability incident is anchor-#1 protection (matches compass).
- AI Q4 deferral preserved.
- Anchor personas (Solo Pro Power Saver, Tenured Free Organizer) preserved as the audience anchors.

## What the playbook contradicts (none found, but two near-conflicts to flag)

1. **"Atlassian/Dia is deferred past Q2" (playbook) vs. dashboard's prior framing of it as an immediate-next-step** (low-priority but listed). Resolution: dashboard now reflects the playbook position — surface it as "explicitly deferred this quarter; founder-level call after Sept-2026 v3 check-in."
2. **Playbook O2 KR1 demands "Phase 2 welcome A/B fully instrumented at canary 5% by 2026-05-19"**; bets.md and prior dashboard reflect "decision review 2026-05-26" only. Resolution: not a contradiction — 2026-05-19 is the *go-live* date that makes the 2026-05-26 decision review possible. Dashboard now surfaces both dates. The 2026-05-19 date raises the silent-slip alarm one week earlier than before.

## Changes I made to `toby/00-state-of-the-project.md`

- **TL;DR**: rewrote to reflect that `toby/strategy/` now holds the full strategic spine (compass + playbook + bets); playbook is the operational strategy of record for the remaining 7 weeks of Q2.
- **Strategic anchor section**: restructured into three layers — Identity (compass), Quarter (playbook), Action (bets) — with a "read in order" instruction.
- **New section: Q2 2026 OKRs (7 weeks remaining)**: surfaces all 9 KRs verbatim with deadlines.
- **Immediate next steps**: re-ordered by playbook ICE + dependency (pricing → reliability → CWS narrative → curator loop → Phase 2). Each item now cites which OKR it serves. Removed `prefetchWelcomeExperiment` and `withExperimentProps` slice line items as separate steps — they're now sub-tasks of the Phase 2 canary item, with a hard 2026-05-19 date.
- **Atlassian/Dia line**: changed from "founder-level decision: take the meeting" to "explicitly deferred this quarter; revisit at founder level after Sept-2026 v3 check-in" — matches playbook anti-bets.
- **Roadmap**: each timeframe now anchors against named OKR KRs with dates.
- **Key decisions**: added the 6 Q2 anti-bets as a single new decision; added "top growth lever this quarter is the dormant curator loop, not acquisition channels."
- **Open questions**: added 4 new entries from playbook red-team and open-questions section (new-tab-override deprecation 2027-2028 risk, team-buyer Slack/LinkedIn canvass, true full-price conversion rate, will reliability hotfix close `not_using` churn). Updated existing entries to reference the playbook deadlines.
- **Doc index**: added playbook + bets. **Resolves my prior open question** ("'bets.md' with unspecified path" — confirmed at `toby/strategy/bets.md`).
- **Recent shipments**: backfilled `toby/strategy/bets.md` publication (I had missed it earlier) and added playbook publication.

## What I did NOT do (and why)

- **Did not write into `toby/strategy/`** — that's the strategist agent's sub-folder per my rules. The "save next to the source" instruction in the orders is overridden by the wiki-scope rule. This ingestion note lives in my own artifacts workspace where it belongs.
- **Did not invent any cross-source strategic conclusions.** Every line in the rewritten dashboard cites a source path or a commit. The playbook's growth thesis is reproduced as the playbook's growth thesis, not asserted as fact.
- **Did not delete prior dashboard content.** The "Phase 2 silent slip", "pricing contradiction", and "uncommitted state on `main`" open questions are still there — the playbook didn't resolve them, it added deadlines to them.

## Followup considerations for the operator

- The playbook implicitly forces the question: **who owns each unowned bet?** Five of the top-5 bets list "TBD" as owner. Compass anchor #1 (reliability) needs an owner before 2026-05-24 or O1 KR1 misses.
- The 2026-05-19 Phase 2 canary date is now the earliest visible alarm bell for "is Jad shipping?" — earlier than the 2026-05-26 decision review. The dashboard's Open Questions surface this.
- The team-buyer LinkedIn canvass (open question from playbook) is operator-led and zero-engineering. Worth surfacing in a future check-in.