# Dashboard sync — 2026-05-10

**Trigger**: file event — `toby/strategy/bets.md` created (Rolling Bets Queue, ICE-scored, MoSCoW-tagged, with falsifying signals).

**Action taken**: updated `toby/00-state-of-the-project.md` to delegate strategic identity to `toby/strategy/compass.md` and the live bet ledger to `toby/strategy/bets.md`. No code touched.

## What changed in the dashboard

1. **`last_updated`**: 2026-05-09 → 2026-05-10.
2. **New "Strategic anchor" section** (top of doc) that points at `compass.md` as the canonical product identity, axioms, anchors, brand promise, anti-promise. Calls out the two structural shifts in compass:
   - Axis sharpened "calm" → "calm-by-ambient-surfacing — value in the gap between intent and next action" (because "calm" became a category claim).
   - Reliability (save/restore) promoted to Anchor 1 because of the live blank-page regression.
3. **"Immediate next steps" reordered by ICE-ranked Musts** from bets.md (was previously ordered by recency-of-source):
   - pricing-reality-reconcile (ICE 600) — was #2, now #1 (1h audit, highest leverage, blocks gating).
   - reliability-blank-page-fix (ICE 576) — was #1, now #2.
   - cws-narrative-repair (ICE 392) — was #6, now #3.
   - phase-2-welcome-ab (ICE 192) — was #3/4/5 (as Phase 2 slices), now consolidated under the bet with operational slices nested beneath.
   - Atlassian/Dia decision retained (founder-level, one-way door).
   - Removed standalone Phase 2 "register endpoint shape" item — now a sub-slice of the phase-2-welcome-ab bet.
   - Removed "Chrome 133 vs. Toby" page from Musts — bets.md classifies it as Should-tier (ICE 240).
   - Appended a Should/Could tail summary citing the proposed bets (`role-based-paywall-gating`, `public-collection-pride-loop`, `lapsed-pro-reactivation-campaign`, `chrome-133-vs-toby-comparison-page`, `seo-content-cadence-2-weeks`, `x-relaunch-soft`).
4. **"Key decisions to date"** — three new entries reflecting changes locked in by compass + bets:
   - Strategic axis sharpened: "calm" → "calm-by-ambient-surfacing".
   - Reliability promoted to Anchor 1.
   - Killed bets explicitly enumerated (deeper-discount-retention 50%, team-plan-as-primary-monetization, paid-acquisition-channel, aggressive-pricing-on-legacy-cohort).
   - "270K untracked WAU" → explicitly marked **killed as a strategic axis** (was just "resolved").
   - "AI feature relaunch deferred Q3 → Q4" updated to reference the explicit kill of pre-announcement.
5. **"Open questions / blockers"** — two new items:
   - Owners undefined for 3 of 4 in-flight Musts (blank-page-fix, cws-narrative-repair, pricing-reality).
   - X account credential gate blocks `x-relaunch-soft`.
6. **"Doc index"** — fixed (was badly stale, listed only the dashboard). Now lists all 8 docs under `toby/`:
   - 00-state-of-the-project, 01-personas, strategy/compass, strategy/bets, x-strategy, x-content-pipeline, x-engagement-targets, blog-pipeline, blog-why-you-have-so-many-tabs-open.
7. **"Phase / Milestone progress"** — cross-references bets.md `phase-2-welcome-ab` and the four validated graduations (session-start-heartbeat, retention-discount-all-cancellation-reasons, monorepo-flatten-turborepo, cws-review-monitor-with-ai-drafts).

## What did not change
- Codebase state: still on `main`, last commit b9bea18c (2026-04-29). Same uncommitted `CLAUDE.md` + untracked `docs/ai-onboarding-ideas-analysis.md`, `product/ideas/`, `research-docs/`.
- Recent shipments list: no new commits in the last 24h. Same 12-item batch.
- TL;DR's headline facts (Phase 1 shipped 2026-04-14, Phase 2 has no commits visible).

## Operator decisions surfaced (still pending)
1. Assign owners for `reliability-blank-page-fix`, `cws-narrative-repair`, `pricing-reality-reconcile` (3 of 4 in-flight Musts have no owner).
2. Confirm whether Phase 2 work is on an unpushed branch or genuinely deferred (19 days past the target start).
3. Decide on the Atlassian/Dia 60-min discovery meeting (one-way door, window narrowing).
4. Verify @TobyForTabs X credentials so the `x-relaunch-soft` proposed bet can move forward.
5. Whether the uncommitted `CLAUDE.md` + untracked `docs/ai-onboarding-ideas-analysis.md`, `product/ideas/`, `research-docs/` should be committed before Phase 2 begins.

## Files touched this run
- `toby/00-state-of-the-project.md` (updated via aios MCP).
- `content/artifacts/toby-pm/af814294-3817-4cf9-b81b-69946b803977/dashboard-sync-2026-05-10.md` (this audit log).