Toby — State of Business
Headline
Net MRR is essentially flat WoW (−0.28%). Paid subs ticked down 13 to 7,836; cancellations held at 32 / 7d with no new acquisition to offset (only 10 new active subs in 7d, lowest weekly print on record). Top of funnel is loud but soft: signups +3.6% WoW at 722, but YoY remains catastrophic at −61.2% (worse than last week's −58.3%). Renewal-cliff ladder, trialing-zombie pool, retention-offer pipeline, and CWS sentiment are unchanged in posture from 5/6 — every previously-flagged structural risk is still on the table.
1 · Revenue (Net MRR, Postgres mirror — source of truth)
MRR convention: SUM(seats × unit_amount) on subscriptions.status='active'; unit_amount is monthly-equivalent for both monthly and yearly intervals (do not divide). Trialing excluded. Stripe Sigma remains in test mode on this integration — Postgres mirror is canonical for $ figures.
2 · Engagement (WAU)
Cross-validation: Amplitude and Postgres heartbeat agree within 1.0% (60,248 vs 59,636), consistent with prior weeks. Stickiness ratio is creeping up as 30-day pool drains faster than 7-day — the core habit-loop cohort is intact but the broader top-of-MAU is leaking.
3 · Top of Funnel
Weekly signups, last 8 weeks
| Week of | Signups | vs prev wk |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | 875 | — |
| 2026-03-23 | 939 | +7.3% |
| 2026-03-30 | 862 | −8.2% |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,024 | +18.8% |
| 2026-04-13 | 862 | −15.8% |
| 2026-04-20 | 769 | −10.8% |
| 2026-04-27 | 709 | −7.8% |
| 2026-05-04 | 725 | +2.3% |
| 2026-05-11 (partial · 1d) | 76 | — |
4 · Churn
Weekly cancellations, last 13 weeks
| Week of | Cancels | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 37 | |
| 2026-02-16 | 56 | |
| 2026-02-23 | 93 | |
| 2026-03-02 (peak) | 144 | |
| 2026-03-09 | 51 | |
| 2026-03-16 | 35 | |
| 2026-03-23 | 46 | |
| 2026-03-30 | 30 | |
| 2026-04-06 | 36 | |
| 2026-04-13 | 26 | |
| 2026-04-20 | 30 | |
| 2026-04-27 | 27 | |
| 2026-05-04 | 31 | |
| 2026-05-11 (partial · 1d) | 3 |
Cancel velocity has held the post-3/02-peak baseline (~30/wk) for 7 consecutive weeks. The 3/02 spike (144) is still the dominant signal in trailing-12w totals and remains attributed to the license-enforcement event. Net of new actives: 32 cancels − 10 new = −22 subs net/wk — quietly contracting.
5 · Renewal Cliff Ladder
Active subs grouped by their current_period_end month. Cliffs concentrate where annual renewals stack — especially the legacy ThankYou cohort (discount='nBvJx1dq').
| Renewal month | Subs | MRR at risk | Legacy MRR | Legacy subs | Legacy % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 522 | $3,135.00 | $558.50 | 109 | 17.8% | |
| 2026-06 | 473 | $2,616.00 | $647.50 | 136 | 24.8% | |
| 2026-07 | 196 | $909.00 | $490.50 | 106 | 54.0% | |
| 2026-08 | 212 | $1,016.50 | $506.50 | 100 | 49.8% | |
| 2026-09 | 167 | $909.50 | $468.00 | 74 | 51.5% | |
| 2026-10 | 1,094 | $5,380.00 | $4,485.00 | 925 | 83.4% | |
| 2026-11 | 408 | $2,035.00 | $1,257.00 | 267 | 61.8% | |
| 2026-12 | 203 | $960.50 | $482.00 | 101 | 50.2% | |
| 2027-01 | 1,019 | $4,909.50 | $4,006.50 | 833 | 81.6% | |
| 2027-02 (mega) | 2,371 | $12,528.50 | $10,837.50 | 2,055 | 86.5% | |
| 2027-03 | 552 | $2,884.00 | $1,817.00 | 347 | 63.0% | |
| 2027-04 | 313 | $1,502.00 | $746.00 | 161 | 49.7% | |
| 2027-05 | 80 | $415.50 | $207.00 | 37 | 49.8% |
Action still owed: retention offer ladder + instrumentation pre-staged by Q3 2026.
6 · Retention Offer Pipeline
7 · Trialing Zombies
All 8,833 "trialing" rows have trial_end in the past, with the newest expiry dated 2024-10-21 — i.e. the Stripe→Postgres sync stopped advancing trial state ~7 months ago. New-trialing in last 7d remains 0. Almost certainly a sync regression rather than real product behavior. Action still owed: audit Stripe webhook → trial expiration handler.
8 · Users & Ghost Pool
Two-thirds of every account we've ever created has never produced a heartbeat. Dormant-90d pool grew by ~1k this week — slower than total signups (+423), implying ~1.4K users crossed the 90-day threshold faster than new users replenished. Action still owed: wire BigQuery core_api.events↔users join so weekly ghost-rate delta becomes reportable directly (current proxy reports only all-time backlog).
9 · Chrome Web Store — Sentiment
Recent reviews (most recent first)
May 9, 2026 · 5★ · Hanno van Baarle: "Great app"
May 7, 2026 · 5★ · Shannon Mackey: "I have been with Toby for over 5 years now and would be lost without it."
Apr 27, 2026 · 3★ · Axel Streichardt: couldn't locate monthly plan option despite wanting to upgrade from free tier — upgrade UX confusion, recurring theme
Mar 20, 2026 · 5★ · John Carter: "This is a fabulous app for organizing your links."
Mar 6, 2026 · 2★ · Killdeer: extension tab stopped opening, displaying blank page on infinite load — blank-extension-page complaint, recurring
Recurring themes (no change vs 5/6): blank/infinite-loading new tab page (SW boot path regression suspected), upgrade flow confusion (no clear monthly path from free tier). Positive sentiment continues to come from long-tenure users.
10 · Anomalies & New Signals
- New active subs / 7d at all-time low (10). Last week was 16; this week 10. Acquisition cannot compensate for steady-state 32 cancels/wk → quiet but real net contraction of ~−22 subs/wk.
- YoY signups gap widening (was −58.3%, now −61.2%). Combined with persistent CWS install-failure reports, this strengthens the SW boot-path regression hypothesis.
- Trialing pool frozen identically for the 4th week running. Same 8,833 rows, same 33 with PM, same trial_end ceiling at 2024-10-21. No drift.
- WAU/MAU ratio inched up to 85.3% (was 84.7% on 5/6). Habit-loop cohort is intact; the leak is from the broader 30d tail, not the 7d core.
- May-2026 cliff bucket dropped from $4,040.50 → $3,135. A chunk of May renewals successfully rolled forward (good); residual May exposure now small.
- Queued-to-cancel dropped 302 → 293. Modest but directionally positive — some pending cancels reversed before execution.
- retention_offers 12w accepted dropped 9 → 8. Rolling window edge — one accept aged out. Pipeline remains under-instrumented.
11 · Outstanding Items (carried)
- Pre-stage Feb-2027 mega-cliff response — 2,371 subs / $12.5K MRR / 86.5% legacy. Offer ladder + instrumentation needed by Q3 2026.
- Investigate −61% YoY signup drop + recurring blank-extension-page complaints — SW boot-path regression suspected; needs eng diagnosis.
- Audit retention_offers insert path — 8 logged accepts vs 605 cancels (12w) implies broken save-flow or broken instrumentation.
- Fix Stripe → Postgres trialing sync — 8,833 zombie rows stuck since 2023–2024.
- Wire BigQuery core_api.events ↔ users join for accurate weekly ghost-rate delta.
- Point Stripe Sigma integration at live mode — currently test-mode, useless for authoritative $ figures.
- CREATE INDEX CONCURRENTLY ON public.cards (created_at) — card-creation metrics still unreportable.
- Commit
product/metrics/data-sources.mdwith connection IDs, MRR convention, schema notes. - Ratify CWS reviews ingestion path — WebFetch works but is fragile.